National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) has released its monthly business survey for September 2015 which showed a partial recovery in business confidence. Nab also believes that another rate cut solely based on domestic grounds is unlikely in the next six months.
According to the report, the business confidence index rose from 1 points to 5 points for the September report, offsetting last month’s decline. An improvement was seen in all sectors except of mining, construction and finance.
Business conditions remained stable at nine index points despite the financial market volatility and difficult business conditions in the mining sector. The data suggests a positive trend is emerging in non-mining sectors through consistent above-average outcomes since March. The employment index rose to 4 index points compared to negative one last month, faring better than trading and profitability indices.
The report points to a stark variance in the business conditions across various industries. The services industries have shown sustainable results making them the best performing sectors. On the other hand, mining and manufacturing industries were the only ones to report negative results. This is only the second time since mid 2011s that both the sectors were down together.
Business confidence has been the most positive in the transport/ utilities sectors which were up to 16 index points and personal services sector up to 13 index points. As expected, mining industries took the greatest hit by falling to a negative 14 points. The overall four points increase in the business confidence cannot be clearly attributed to a change in the leadership of Liberal Party, as stable business conditions and a partial reduction in the financial markets anxieties may also have contributed.
The overall implications of the forecast suggest that a gradual recovery in the non-mining sectors is sustainable due to the continuous growth in business conditions and ongoing improvement in key indicators. According to the report, “Low interest rates and the lower AUD are providing support, with strength particularly evident across services sectors of the economy, including but not limited to tourism-related activity.”
Author: Imran Valibhoy
Oct 13, 2015
Since Joining the firm in 2006, Imran has worked on a range of M&A and Capital Market transactions in the natural resources, mining as well as projects in the renewable energy sector. Prior to joining Wise-owl, Imran worked at Euroz Securities in Perth, aiding in the advisory and valuation of companies in the mining and industrial sectors in Australia. Imran has a Masters in Banking & Finance from City University's Class Business School in London and a Bacheloor degree in Commerce from UWA.